Adobe’s 2020 Covid-19 Shopping Predictions

Adobe analyzed over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and 100 million SKUs from 80 of the 100 largest U.S. retailers – which is actually more than any other technology company. 

Earlier this morning Adobe Analytics released its annual online shopping predictions for the 2020 holiday season that goes from Nov. 1 – Dec. 31. 

Adobe analyzed over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and 100 million SKUs from 80 of the 100 largest U.S. retailers – which is actually more than any other technology company. 

I’m not going to discuss their predictions about Thanksgiving, Black Friday or Cyber Monday, for that go directly to their website.

It is their insights on the impact of COVID-19 on holiday shopping volume and patterns – including the growth of online sales and mobile shopping and curbside pick up that I find the most interesting.

Adobe is actually predicting  that U.S. online holiday sales will total $189 billion,  shattering all previous records with  a  33%  YoY  increase, equal to two years’ growth in one season.

And they say, if consumers receive another round of stimulus checks and physical stores need to shut down in large parts of the  country, consumers are expected to spend an additional $11 billion online, surpassing a total of $200 billion (47% YoY increase). 

Sure we saw record breaking supermarket sales both in-store and online since the pandemic began, but that has slowed dramatically as people stopped panic buying.

We are also seeing reports that people are starting to show real concern over rising food prices and that people will be spending less on holiday gifts this year.

So where are these huge projections coming from?

Adobe’s topline is that instead of Cyber Week (Thanksgiving Day – Cyber Monday), they expect November and December to turn into Cyber Months this year:

Some Adobe Analytics highlights: Online sales will surpass $2 billion every day between Nov. 1-21 and increase to $3 billion a day Nov. 22–Dec 3. 

Americans will spend $28.1 billion more on their smartphones  vs. 2019, accounting for 42% of all online sales, a 55% increase YoY.   I’m assuming part of it is hype about 5G, new improved cameras and frankly people being concerned about personal safety and making sure their cameras and phones are in perfect shape as well as families buying phones for their distant family members to be able to keep in contact as the pandemic continues.

Shining light for me is that they predict small retailers ($10M-$50M annual online revenue) will see a larger boost to revenue (107%  boost) vs. large retailers (84% boost).  51% of consumers plan to support small and local retailers on Small Business Saturday; 38% plan to shop at smaller retailers throughout the season.  

Adobe expects 9% of all holiday customers to be net new online shoppers due to the pandemic, and conversion rates are expected to increase significantly (13%).

And if you are wondering when you can get the best deals: Black Friday will be the best day to get discounts on appliances (discounted by 11% on average) and TVs (19%)  

Best discounting for toys (20%) and furniture (10%) will fall on Sunday, Nov. 29, the day before Cyber Monday 

Sporting goods will offer the best deals on Dec. 13 (27%) with electronics on Dec. 18 (19%) 

Dec. 26 will see the best prices on tools and home improvement items (12%) 

But here’s a reality check: 26% of consumers say that the outcome of the election will impact their holiday spending negatively. Online sales were down 14% the day after the 2016 election, and online sales dropped by 6% the day after the 2018 midterm election.